Causes of Water Conflict: Past Wars and Future Predictions

By 2040, the global demand for freshwater resources will exceed availability according to The National Intelligence Council’s report on Global Water Security (2012).

The report acknowledges that large-scale water wars are unlikely to happen within the next ten years, but water-related challenges such as shortages and sanitation are already increasing smaller-scale conflict and instability within and across national borders.

Water problems can lead to food shortages, energy crises, and ultimately economic and governmental instability.

The term 'water conflict' is used to describe tensions or disputes between states, countries, or people groups surrounding the utilization, consumption, or control of water resources.

In this article, we'll cover:

• Some of the major causes of water conflict around the world
• A timeline of water conflict throughout human history
• Current world regions of major concern which may spark potential conflicts
• What future plans can be put in place to mitigate water conflict

Only 0.4% of the world's drinkable water is accessible to humans. With a growing population of 7 billion people, disputes over potable water sources common especially in regions where water is scarce. Whenever a water source such as a lake, a river, or an underground aquifer crosses national borders, rightful ownership is often contested.

The Nile River in North Africa flows upstream and it is arguable that Egypt has historically benefitted the most – both economically and culturally – from the resources the river has provided. With several countries downstream including Ethiopia, motioning to build a dam for their own purposes, Egypt is facing the reality of losing access to their most precious resource (Kreamer, 2013).

Bangladesh and India both rely on the Ganges River as a major source of water for their people. With India posturing to build a dam for energy and efficiency purposes, Bangladesh would be in a more critical condition than they already are (Kreamer, 2013).

Because of the decreasing amount of potable water, it is not uncommon for nations or people groups to have conflict over a shared body of water, as we'll read further.

Because of its fundamental necessity, water scarcity has been both a source of regional dispute and a tool of military conflict throughout history. It has been the cause of tribal conflict and border tension and has been used for ethnic warfare, terrorism, and political actions.

Water has often been used as an excuse for ethnic violence.

In 14^th century Europe, during the Black Death epidemic, hundreds of Jewish communities suffered violence at the hand of those who claimed that the Jews poisoned the local water wells (Tsillas, 2014).

Rivers that cross international borders are too commonly a source of dispute. The Ataturk Dam in Turkey controls the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which supply clean water to marginalized groups such as the Alevi and Kurds in Iraq. According to the UN Committee on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, Turkey’s withholding of freshwater sources to these regions is a violation of international guidelines (Nasrawi, 2018).

Regions such as China, India, and Pakistan are experiencing increasing tensions regarding clean water resources.

We will take a historical look at water conflicts throughout history and will observe which regions are of significant concern for the near future.

The Pacific Institute's water conflict chronology publishes a regularly updated list of water-related conflicts since history's earliest recorded events. Here is a partial list of some of the most significant cases throughout world history.

The Arabian Aquifer System, which supplies water to 60 million people in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, is in a critical state. Before the invention of modern farming, the Arabian Aquifer held around 120 cubic miles of water underneath the Saudi desert, which is enough water to fill Lake Erie. But due to extensive pumping and inability to be replaced by rainfall in such a dry area, there is an estimated one-fifth of the original quantity left in reserve (National Geographic, 2017).

Considered the world’s second most stressed underground water reserve and shared by North-Western India and Pakistan, this basin of 16.2 million hectares was in a state of hydrological equilibrium until the development of a canal irrigation system. With no natural source of replenishment, this basin was classified as “extremely stressed” according to the Water Resources Research and will continue to deplete at this rate. In India, 60% of irrigated agriculture and 85% of drinking water depend on this basin which, in 20 years will be in critical condition (Laskar, 2015).

With a number of dams controlling the flow of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers in Turkey’s territory, the Turkish government has been accused of withholding water to regions which the Euphrates and Tigris rivers provide water to, regions such as Syria and Iraq where millions of people depend on it for survival. With water shortages already a concern in Iraq, and with tensions in place due to geopolitical and religious disputes, conflict over the control of the Tigris and Euphrates might only increase instability in the region (Nasrawi, 2018).

Both Afghan and Iranian farmers are dependent on the Helmand River Basin for agricultural purposes. With political disputes between both countries and recent NATO involvement, mutual agreement regarding the proper management of the water system is still yet to be reached (Factbook, 2018).

According to Innovative Energy and Research, the following water sources are stressed enough to raise concern about possible conflicts in the future.

• The River Columbia (conflict between Canada and the US).
• The Colorado River (conflict between Mexico and the US).
• The River Senepas (conflict between Ecuador and Peru).
• The River Senegal (conflict between Mauritania and Senegal).
• The River Zambezi (conflict between Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana).
• The sources in the Sahara Desert (Reaction Egypt, Chad, Niger and Sudan).
• The River Nile (conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia).
• The River Tagus (conflict between Tagus and Duero).
• The River Syr Darya (conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Kazakhstan)
• The River Ganges (conflict between India and Bangladesh).
• The Jordan River (the conflict between Israel and Jordan).
• The Mekong River (conflict between Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam)

Despite many conflicts surrounding the control and utilization of freshwater sources, future conflict can be anticipated and resolved with proper planning, education, and cooperation. Non-governmental agencies and think-tanks are actively pursuing reasonable avenues as to how these water-stressed regions can gain cooperation from the neighboring people groups who utilize them and how these conflicts can be predicted and avoided.

David Kreamer is his article The Past, Present, and Future of Water Conflict and International Security, proposes that effective policies in better water management should include:

• Water quality education
• Holistic sanitary community improvement
• Improvement of water regulation enforcement
• Water quality protection at wellheads and distribution points
• Strengthening of natural protected areas
• Upgraded emergency response to potential water crises
• Creation of hydrological and water quality data storage systems that are transferrable and compatible

As stated before, large-scale water wars are unlikely to happen in the near future. What is happening are small-scale disputes and rising tensions which can lead to a larger conflict. Water conflict, on any level, is a result of freshwater scarcity which all peoples are affected by. By doing our own part in proper water management, education, and cooperation, seeds for future conflict can be uprooted before they sprout.